Analysis shows that the outcome was due far more to confederate internal factors than any Union action/cause. The accepted version stated by many historians that the Union won by superior command and strategy can not be confirmed by data on military blunders. The data shows that Confederate command, and in particular Davis and Polk, overwhelmed other factors by a wide margin. This is not to say that Union Command and other factors had no effect, but that the net outcome was ultimately driven more forcefully and consistently by internal confederate command factors. While the data shows that military factors played a very important part, the political and economic effects of the Cotton Embargo and violation of Kentucky neutrality were probably the two decisive factors driving the outcome. The cotton embargo clearly had a deep and long-term impact. Violation of Kentucky neutrality undercut Confederate moral and political credibility from the outset while also creating the military chance for the union to exploit key strategic and economic position of the state. Set up as it was by this twin blow of bad judgement and with the responsible parties continuing to have negative impact, its a measure of largely superior Confederate military performance that the war continued so long and at times seemed to be almost lost to the Union. Not only did the South face the superior Union manpower, economic and logistic resources, confederates were saddled with two men in highly influential positions who burdened their side with very serious policy and strategy gaffs from the very outset. They consistently contributed serious errors thereafter, while refusing to allow others to contribute.

M. Collie 2005